The negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program have put the EU center stage in what are arguably the most important diplomatic negotiations since the Camp David summit back in 1978. However, the centrality of the EU in these negotiations does not necessarily mean that it will also reap the biggest rewards, Willem Oosterveld and Sijbren de Jong argue in an article published by EU Observer today.
Due to Iran’s pivotal position, Russia, China and the US will be very eager to get a share in the spoils in what may be the biggest prize in a new “Great Game”, potentially leaving EU countries and businesses sidelined.
However, Europe cannot afford not to be involved in Iran’s future course. After all, it has great interest in cultivating Iran as a stabilizing force in the Middle East, and relying on its influence in the region to address the war in Syria and Iraq. In addition, Iranian gas could have a significant impact on Europe’s energy security in the long term, enabling it to diversify its imports and to lessen its dependence on Russian gas.
Still, despite the jockeying by the US, Russia and China, it is not a foregone conclusion that European countries will lose out when Iran opens up. Iran itself may have second thoughts about getting itself entangled in a delicate dance trying to soothe Beijing, Moscow, and Washington all at the same time. Nevertheless, Europe will need to make sure it knows how to play the geopolitical game if Iran is going to be on our side in the years to come.
The full article can be read here.