Down to $36 from its peak of $115 a barrel in June 2014, the oil price decline has rattled petrostates around the world. Russia, which already had a horrendous 2015, saw the rouble reach a record low against the dollar and may witness a budget deficit of 6 percent in 2016. Azerbaijan’s manat lost a third of its value in December last year and the country is currently in talks with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank about a possible $4 billion emergency loan. Kazakhstan’s tenge depreciated a whopping 100 percent against the dollar in January alone. According to the International Energy Agency oil markets risk “drowning in oversupply.”
Europe and NATO countries, for their part, would be wise to invest more in strategic early warning capabilities. For if oil prices remain depressed for long enough, Europe’s eastern neighbourhood can quickly become an even more contentious place than it already is writes Sijbren de Jong in his new column for EUobserver.
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