Authors: Willem Oosterveld & Kristina Tranakieva
In a time of Brexit and growing populism in Europe, economic conditions are never too far from the picture. Rising unemployment and inflation can be important drivers of Euroscepticism, sometimes even in times of economic growth.
Authors: Willem Oosterveld & Kristina Tranakieva
In a time of Brexit and growing populism in Europe, economic conditions are never too far from the picture. Rising unemployment and inflation can be important drivers of Euroscepticism, sometimes even in times of economic growth.
This snapshot explains the connection between the economy and changing attitudes towards the E.U. While economic conditions are important for Euroscepticism, individuals cannot always accurately perceive them, often leaving room for politically-motivated narratives to fill the gap.
Download the Snapshot via the button on the button on the right or click here for the mobile version.
The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide.
This month the Global Security Pulse focuses on the subject of political warfare. It specifically assesses how it plays a role in the foreign relations of Russia and consists of three separate parts:
The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide.
This month the Global Security Pulse focuses on the subject of political warfare. It specifically assesses how it plays a role in the foreign relations of Russia and consists of three separate parts:
- A table of the main trends regarding the threat of political warfare, with Russia remaining the most active and aggressive actor;
- A table on the impact of political warfare on the overall state of the international order, based on a set of qualitative indicators/proxy’s;
- The results of a structured Horizon Scan.
All (raw) results are available with the authors.
Use the button on the right to download the Pulse or click here to access the mobile version.
The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use of an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies on the manual monitoring of hundreds of validated foresight resources, the structured coding of signals and expert assessment. The GSP product is based on the Clingendael Radar and has been further developed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the Clingendael Institute. It is part of the Strategic Monitor Programme, which receives funding from the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.
Authors: Aaron Arends, Danny Pronk (Clingendael). Contributors: Sico van der Meer, Jurgen Oppel, Tony van der Togt (Clingendael); Reinier Bergema, Katarina Kertysova, Michel Roelen, Kristina Tranakieva (HCSS).
DISCLAIMER
The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.
Over the last few years the oil price has experienced significant changes. From well over 100 dollars per barrel in the pre-2014 high oil price world, the price dropped to as low as 30 dollars per barrel in early 2016. Since then, it has embarked on a trajectory of gradually rising prices, reaching close to 70 (WTI) or 80 (Brent) dollars per barrel by mid 2018.
Over the last few years the oil price has experienced significant changes. From well over 100 dollars per barrel in the pre-2014 high oil price world, the price dropped to as low as 30 dollars per barrel in early 2016. Since then, it has embarked on a trajectory of gradually rising prices, reaching close to 70 (WTI) or 80 (Brent) dollars per barrel by mid 2018.
In this paper we aim to discuss the questions and uncertainties that, in our view, matter the most for the future of oil markets and the oil industry. Whilst discussing different scenarios we will not refrain from focusing on the scenario that we consider the most likely (rather than giving an extensive overview of potential scenarios). We will do so for three different timeframes:
- Short term, up to 2020, with a focus on shale oil
- Medium term, 2020-2025, with a focus on conventional oil
- Long term, 2025-2040, with a focus on peak oil (demand)
Authors: Jilles van den Beukel, independent energy analyst (formerly a principal geoscientist at Shell) & Lucia van Geuns
Download the paper via the button on the right or click here for a mobile version.
The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide.
This month’s edition explores trends on the vertical tensions between individuals, national governments, and the European Union, and presents novel developments regarding Euroscepticism, trust in governing institutions in the Netherlands and Europe, and the effects on the international order.
The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide.
This month’s edition explores trends on the vertical tensions between individuals, national governments, and the European Union, and presents novel developments regarding Euroscepticism, trust in governing institutions in the Netherlands and Europe, and the effects on the international order.
The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use of an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies on the manual monitoring of hundreds of validated foresight resources, the structured coding of signals, and expert assessment. The GSP product is based on the Clingendael Radar and has been further developed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the Clingendael Institute. It is part of the Strategic Monitor Program, which receives funding from the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.
Authors: Reinier Bergema, Kristina Tranakieva, Willem Oosterveld, Tim Sweijs (HCSS). Contributors: Adriaan Schout , Danny Pronk, Minke Meijnders (Clingendael), Lucie Kattenbroek (HCSS).
Use the button on the right to download the Pulse or click here to access the mobile version.
Click here to access the methodology document.
DISCLAIMER
The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.
Joint publication of the Atlantic Council, the University of Denver’s Pardee Center for International Futures and HCSS.
Joint publication of the Atlantic Council, the University of Denver’s Pardee Center for International Futures and HCSS.
The Method Appendix to the study Influence and Power in a Globalized World reviews the theoretical justifications of each sub-dimension included in the Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) Index. It also includes a broader discussion of the data series supporting each sub-index based on an extensive review of the literature. The FBIC Index includes forty-two economic, political, and security indicators with over 200 million individual observations from 1963 to the present. The multidimensional, dyadic measurement of influence of the FBIC Index makes it possible to conduct a broader analysis of different aspects of international relations than traditional power, resource-based approaches.
Click on the button on the right to download the appendix or click here for a mobile version.
Jonathan D. Moyer, Tim Sweijs, Matt Burrows and Hugo Van Manen, 2017. "Appendix to Power and Influence in a Globalized World." Working paper December 2018. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO.
The study Influence and Power in a Globalized World can be accessed here.
The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month we conduct an open scan, identifying threats and novel insights on the international order, particularly in the categories of trade and economics, climate and environment, technology, and megatrends.
The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month we conduct an open scan, identifying threats and novel insights on the international order, particularly in the categories of trade and economics, climate and environment, technology, and megatrends.
The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use of an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies on the manual monitoring of hundreds of validated foresight resources, the structured coding of signals, and expert assessment. The GSP product is based on the Clingendael Radar and has been further developed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the Clingendael Institute. It is part of the Strategic Monitor Programme, which receives funding from the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.
Authors: Karlijn Jans, Kristina Tranakieva. Contributors: Tim Sweijs, Stephan De Spiegeleire, Reinier Bergema (HCSS), Minke Meijnders, Kars de Bruijne, Aaron Arends (Clingendael).
Use the button on the right to download the Pulse or click here to access the mobile version.
Click here to access the methodology document.
DISCLAIMER
The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.
The Dutch government is about to reach a general agreement on an ambitious national climate accord. This accord is designed to prepare the Netherlands for a greenhouse gas emission reduction of at least 49% by 2030.
The Dutch government is about to reach a general agreement on an ambitious national climate accord. This accord is designed to prepare the Netherlands for a greenhouse gas emission reduction of at least 49% by 2030.
Read the Policy Comment on the Dutch ambitions by Strategic Analyst Jan Frederik Braun and Strategic Advisor Lucia van Geuns. This first publication in the HCSS Energy Transition Program paper series argues that effective decarbonization at home requires cross-border climate action from both companies and government.
Download the paper via the button on the right or click here.
Cyberspace is managed by stakeholders from civil society, the private sector, and, to a lesser degree, by governments. The latter, however, is increasingly asserting its role in cyberspace, leading to a redistribution of power in which States are not only competing with other stakeholders, but also amongst each other. All cyberspace users thus face a power struggle between States that stands to affect the private sector and civil society, the multi-stakeholder approach to managing Internet resources, and therefore cyberspace writ large.
Cyberspace is managed by stakeholders from civil society, the private sector, and, to a lesser degree, by governments. The latter, however, is increasingly asserting its role in cyberspace, leading to a redistribution of power in which States are not only competing with other stakeholders, but also amongst each other. All cyberspace users thus face a power struggle between States that stands to affect the private sector and civil society, the multi-stakeholder approach to managing Internet resources, and therefore cyberspace writ large.
This article appropriates a realist model in international relations– the balance of power theory (BOP) – and adjusts it with neoliberal concepts of power to help better understand the challenge of stability between States in and on cyberspace. It specifically enables the “cybered” international relations of governments to be analysed against the backdrop of the complex ecosystem of stakeholders. This does not presuppose that States are or should be the most important or influential actors in cyberspace. Instead, this article focuses on State interests. It identifies two conditions of the BOP theory and applies them to cyberspace in three different scenarios previously suggested by States, and offers one suggestion on the way forward.
Downdload the PDF via the button on the right or click here.
This article was published in the European Cybersecurity Journal Volume 3 (2018) Issue 4.
The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month we focus on Security and Migration, identifying new tensions in Europe and challenges to the international order.
The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month we focus on Security and Migration, identifying new tensions in Europe and challenges to the international order.
The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use of an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies on the manual monitoring of hundreds of validated foresight resources, the structured coding of signals, and expert assessment. The GSP product is based on the Clingendael Radar and has been further developed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the Clingendael Institute. It is part of the Strategic Monitor Programme, which receives funding from the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.
Authors: Kars de Bruijne, Kay de Jonge, Willemijn Tiekstra. Contributions: Fransje Molenaar, Ana Uzelac, Anca-Elena Ursu, Louise van Schaik (Clingendael), Reiner Bergema (HCSS).
Use the button on the right to download the Pulse.
DISCLAIMER
The Global Security Pulse is part of the PROGRESS Program, Lot 5, commissioned by the Netherlands’ Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed rests solely with the authors; publication does not necessarily constitute an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs or Defense.
Het aantal politieke ambtsdragers dat op jaarlijkse basis te maken krijgt met agressie en geweld is toegenomen ten opzichte van voorgaande jaren. Om deze problematiek effectief het hoofd te bieden is er in de afgelopen jaren een breed instrumentarium ontwikkeld, variërend van leidraden en campagnes tot bestuurlijke en strafrechtelijke maatregelen. Echter, waar geweld tegen overheidsmedewerkers in brede zin afneemt, blijft eenzelfde effect bij politieke ambtsdragers tot nu toe uit.
Het aantal politieke ambtsdragers dat op jaarlijkse basis te maken krijgt met agressie en geweld is toegenomen ten opzichte van voorgaande jaren. Om deze problematiek effectief het hoofd te bieden is er in de afgelopen jaren een breed instrumentarium ontwikkeld, variërend van leidraden en campagnes tot bestuurlijke en strafrechtelijke maatregelen. Echter, waar geweld tegen overheidsmedewerkers in brede zin afneemt, blijft eenzelfde effect bij politieke ambtsdragers tot nu toe uit. De vraag of lokale overheden voldoende zijn toegerust om adequaat met deze ontwikkelingen om te gaan wint aan belang. In deze studie is het huidige instrumentarium ter bescherming van lokale politieke ambtsdragers op hoofdlijnen getoetst en biedt het een aantal aanknopingspunten en invalshoeken om het huidige beleid nader aan te scherpen, dan wel richting te geven aan verdiepend onderzoek.
Download het rapport via de knop aan de rechterkant van de pagina.
By 2050, the UN estimates that 70 percent of the global population will be living in urban areas. Therefore, understanding and anticipating the ability of cities to manage and avoid the negative effects of climate-related changes and events – for example, hurricanes, overpopulation or supply chain disruption – is of utmost importance. This paper presents a conceptual framework to empirically quantify the climate resilience of cities to guide policymakers and community leaders in identifying challenges and opportunities.
By 2050, the UN estimates that 70 percent of the global population will be living in urban areas. Therefore, understanding and anticipating the ability of cities to manage and avoid the negative effects of climate-related changes and events – for example, hurricanes, overpopulation or supply chain disruption – is of utmost importance. This paper presents a conceptual framework to empirically quantify the climate resilience of cities to guide policymakers and community leaders in identifying challenges and opportunities.
This paper tests the framework for data analysis in three cities in conflict-prone territories: Bamako (Mali), Maiduguri (Nigeria, Lake Chad Region) and Baghdad (Iraq). The analysis of the three cases suggested that city resilience in those areas cannot be developed without addressing the root causes of conflict in the entire area, as city-level resilience in conflict areas is closely related to the national level.
On the basis of the research, some important observations and recommendations are made. When tested, the analysis revealed that the level of resilience did not necessarily correspond to economic development; it also found that conflict significantly lowered overall urban resilience to climate-related impacts. Large sprawling cities typically score poorly on maintaining resilience. While recovery and learning capacities are usually present in urban areas, very dense urban areas are particularly vulnerable to climate disasters. Cities in the global north have built learning capacity; they have made efforts to share best practices (e.g., the Rockefeller Foundation’s Resilience initiative, efforts by UN CPI and CRI, etc); and they have considered the lessons learned and implemented guidance.
Data analysis can help to bolster the learning capacity of cities to cope with climate impacts that could increase tensions in large urban areas. However, there is a significant difference in the availability of data between the developed and the developing world. Data collection in developing countries (and cities) should be strengthened to better estimate climate-related security risks in urban areas and bolster their capacity to maintain key functions and recover and learn from climate events in their own and comparable cities.
Authors: Michel Rademaker, Karlijn Jans, Paul Verhagen, Aster Boeschoten, Hannes Rõõs & Stephan Slingerland
This study on cybersecurity, commissioned by the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), examines the impact of cyber-related threats and challenges on corporate Europe and the degree of engagement of European businesses in tackling issues at stake. Although the new digitization era offers huge economic and social opportunities, it also changes the nature and magnitude of cyber risks and creates new vulnerabilities cyber attackers seek to exploit. European countries and businesses are targeted with growing frequency.
This study on cybersecurity, commissioned by the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), examines the impact of cyber-related threats and challenges on corporate Europe and the degree of engagement of European businesses in tackling issues at stake. Although the new digitization era offers huge economic and social opportunities, it also changes the nature and magnitude of cyber risks and creates new vulnerabilities cyber attackers seek to exploit. European countries and businesses are targeted with growing frequency. Many companies, however, remain unaware or seem to underestimate, and even neglect the vulnerabilities they are facing through and in cyberspace. An open, safe and secure cyberspace is indispensable for the reliable functioning of European economies.
Recognizing the importance of corporate cybersecurity for the economic wellbeing of Europe, this study presents the challenges European companies face in implementing good cybersecurity practices and offers recommendations on how to overcome them. The study first looks into the current cyber threat environment, and assesses its impact on the private sector. The second part addresses the level of awareness, preparedness and resilience against mounting cyber threats at the European, national and corporate level. Third, key challenges and bottlenecks that inhibit implementation of good cybersecurity practices are presented and analyzed. The final part outlines good practices and inspiring examples observed across the EU that could help overcome the aforementioned bottlenecks.
Authors: Katarina Kertysova, Erik Frinking, Koen van den Dool, Aleksandar Maričić, Kumar Bhattacharyya
The study can be accessed here or click on the download button on the right.
The Global Security Pulse enables you to spot new security developments ahead of the curve. This month we present novel and must-read developments on interstate military competition. With the resurgence of geopolitical competition and the proliferation of technological advancements, interstate military competition is rapidly changing with the emergence of new arms races and contests. Much of the international order has had a hard time coping with these changes - is your organisation prepared?
The Global Security Pulse enables you to spot new security developments ahead of the curve. This month we present novel and must-read developments on interstate military competition. With the resurgence of geopolitical competition and the proliferation of technological advancements, interstate military competition is rapidly changing with the emergence of new arms races and contests. Much of the international order has had a hard time coping with these changes - is your organisation prepared? Download the PDF via the button on the right or click here.
The Global Security Pulse allows our readers to spot new security developments ahead of the curve. The Pulse covers a wide range of security topics from environmental stress to military competition, focussing every month on one distinct theme. The Global Security Pulse is a collaborative product between the Clingendael Institute and The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies - based on a jointly expanded versions of Clingendael’s horizon-scan methodology ranging from manual scanning, Twitter analysis to validated expert input. The product is part of the Strategic Monitor Programme and stimulates foresight at the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.
Authors: Kars de Bruijne (Clingendael), Karlijn Jans, Tim Sweijs, Mischa Sibbel, Kay de Jonge (Clingendael), Paul Verhagen, Lucie Kattenbroek.
With contributions from: Rob de Rave, Dick Zandee (Clingendael) Peter van Ham (Clingendael).
DISCLAIMER
The Global Security Pulse is part of the PROGRESS Program, Lot 5, commissioned by the Netherlands’ Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed rests solely with the authors; publication does not necessarily constitute an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs or Defense.
In de monitor 2017-2018 hebben HCSS en Instituut Clingendael wederom door middel van verscheidene methodes de ontwikkelingen in de internationale orde gemonitord en geduid. Deze orde blijkt weerbaarder voor spanningen dan vaak wordt gedacht, en Nederland blijft goed gepositioneerd in dit internationale krachtenveld. De afgelopen vijf jaar gedroegen de grote mogendheden zich assertiever, echter in 2017 was een meer afwachtende houding waar te nemen.
In de monitor 2017-2018 hebben HCSS en Instituut Clingendael wederom door middel van verscheidene methodes de ontwikkelingen in de internationale orde gemonitord en geduid. Deze orde blijkt weerbaarder voor spanningen dan vaak wordt gedacht, en Nederland blijft goed gepositioneerd in dit internationale krachtenveld. De afgelopen vijf jaar gedroegen de grote mogendheden zich assertiever, echter in 2017 was een meer afwachtende houding waar te nemen. Dit is wellicht te verklaren door de onvoorspelbare houding van de regering Trump. Ondanks spanningen leek er in 2017 sprake van een relatieve luwte in de internationale betrekkingen.
Hoe snel de situatie kan veranderen, blijkt op het moment uit de gebeurtenissen rondom het conflict in Syrië. Ook migratiestromen, terrorisme en Russische beïnvloeding tonen aan dat externe en interne dreigingen nauw met elkaar verbonden zijn. Deze al vaak benoemde ‘nexus’ tussen binnen- en buitenland zal dan nu ook echt zijn beslag moeten vinden in een geïntegreerd buitenland- en veiligheidsbeleid.
De Strategische Monitor bevat naast de uitgebreide analyse van internationale trends in conflict en coöperatie, hoofdstukken gewijd aan:
- Dutch Foreign Relations Index: welke landen zijn partners van Nederland, op basis van gedeelde belangen en waarden?
- Dreigingen en kansen voor Nederland en Europa (o.a. migratie, terrorisme, klimaatverandering, cyberveiligheid)
- Politiek geweld
- De toekomst van Syrië
- Populistisch soevereinisme
Gezamenlijke publicatie met Instituut Clingendael. Auteurs: Stephan De Spiegeleire, Kars de Bruijne, Frank Bekkers, Minke Meijnders, Tim Sweijs.
In his well-known book The End of Power, Moises Naim argues that urbanization – which he regards as “the most aggressively power-transforming aspect of the mobility revolution” – will have “intense” consequences for the distribution of power within a country. The emerging role of cities in world politics makes governance of cities not just a local or national issue, but an international - or, if you will, a transnational - issue.
In his well-known book The End of Power, Moises Naim argues that urbanization – which he regards as “the most aggressively power-transforming aspect of the mobility revolution” – will have “intense” consequences for the distribution of power within a country. The emerging role of cities in world politics makes governance of cities not just a local or national issue, but an international - or, if you will, a transnational - issue.
More people living in cities will inevitably have consequences for the nature of conflict. In response, cities are stepping up cooperation between them, which is now giving rise “to new power relations altogether” according to sociologist Saskia Sassen. However, it is not a given that cities working together will themselves be able to tackle conflict and violence, let alone take the lead in combating global violence and conflict, especially in the developing world.
For authorities at multiple levels, this prompts the need to rethink existing governance structures so as to ensure not only that different forms of violence and conflict in urban areas can be combated in the most effective ways, but also that appropriate preventative policies that tackle root causes be implemented. The result of such an exercise can be to create an ecosystem of stakeholders, from citizens to international organizations, suitable to address these very issues from a broad-based human security perspective.
The present study examines the relationships between urbanization and conflict from multiple angles, based on data-driven research. Subsequently, it considers the consequences for urban governance, and provides suggestions on how cities and national governments can improve cooperation on urban security together with other relevant stakeholders.
Download the report via the button on the right.